全球青少年1型糖尿病流行病学：1990 - 2021年及2045年预测

Global epidemiology of type 1 diabetes in youth: 1990-2021 and projections to 2045.

作者信息

Zhang Kexin, Kan Chengxia, Han Fang, Ma Yanhui, Wang Yuqun, Li Xuan, Xiong Guoji, Chen Jinyan, Yu Xiao, Hou Ningning, Sun Xiaodong

机构信息

Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Clinical Research Center, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.

Department of Pathology, Affiliated Hospital of Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.

出版信息

Endocrine. 2025 Jul 19. doi: 10.1007/s12020-025-04356-y.

DOI:10.1007/s12020-025-04356-y

PMID:40682759

Abstract

AIMS

This study examines the global burden of type 1 diabetes (T1D) among adolescents and young adults (15-39 years) from 1990-2021, with projections to 2045.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021, we analyzed T1D prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and annual percent change (AAPC), with regional and gender differences.

RESULTS

In 2021, global T1D prevalence among 15-39-year-olds was 7.34 million cases (95% UI: 5.94-9.00 million), with males accounting for 50.66%. Incidence was 196,104 cases (141,606-277,782), with 55.31% males. From 1990-2021, prevalence increased from 200.11-246.89 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.68), and incidence rose from 5.10-6.59 per 100,000 (AAPC 0.83). In 2021, there were 16,135 deaths and 1.40 million DALYs, with 54.94% attributed to males. Death rates decreased (AAPC -0.35). Middle SDI regions had the highest prevalence (1.86 million) and incidence (54,541), while high SDI areas had the highest rates. Low-middle SDI areas had the most deaths (5170) and DALYs (419,772). South Asia had the highest prevalence (1.73 million), incidence (46,310), deaths (5189), and DALYs (413,293). India, the USA, and China had the highest prevalence and incidence, while Finland, Canada, and Italy had the highest rates. By 2045, T1D incidence is projected to reach 571,556 cases, predominantly affecting those aged 15-19 years.

CONCLUSION

The rising burden of T1D among adolescents and young adults underscores the need for targeted interventions and healthcare policies, particularly in high-risk regions.

摘要

目的

本研究调查了1990年至2021年期间青少年和青年（15 - 39岁）1型糖尿病（T1D）的全球负担，并预测至2045年。

方法

利用全球疾病负担（GBD）2021的数据，我们分析了T1D的患病率、发病率、死亡率、伤残调整生命年（DALY）和年度百分比变化（AAPC），并分析了地区和性别差异。

结果

2021年，15 - 39岁人群中全球T1D患病率为734万例（95% UI：594 - 900万），男性占50.66%。发病率为196,104例（141,606 - 277,782），男性占55.31%。1990年至2021年期间，患病率从每10万人200.11 - 246.89例增加（AAPC 0.68），发病率从每10万人5.10 - 6.59例上升（AAPC 0.83）。2021年，有16,135例死亡和140万DALY，其中54.94%归因于男性。死亡率下降（AAPC -0.35）。中等社会人口指数（SDI）地区患病率（186万）和发病率（54,541）最高，而高SDI地区死亡率最高。低 - 中等SDI地区死亡（5170例）和DALY（419,772）最多。南亚患病率（173万）、发病率（46,310）、死亡（5189例）和DALY（413,293）最高。印度、美国和中国患病率和发病率最高，而芬兰、加拿大和意大利死亡率最高。到2045年，预计T1D发病率将达到571,556例，主要影响15 - 19岁人群。