Trends in incidence rates of tobacco-related cancer, selected areas, SEER Program, United States, 1992-2004.

INTRODUCTION

Recent trends in incidence rates for tobacco-related cancers may vary geographically because of variation in socioeconomic status and in history of comprehensive state tobacco control programs (starting with California in 1989). Recent trends in risk factors are likely to affect cancer incidence rates at the youngest ages

METHODS

Trends in age-adjusted incidence rates for cancers most strongly associated with tobacco (ie, lung, oral cavity-pharynx, and bladder cancers) were analyzed for 1992 through 2004 in 11 areas (the states of Connecticut, Hawaii, Iowa, Utah, and New Mexico, and the metropolitan areas of Atlanta, Georgia; Detroit, Michigan; Los Angeles County, California; San Francisco-Oakland, California; San Jose-Monterey, California; and Seattle-Puget Sound, Washington) in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program. The 8 states differed in poverty rate of the population and in history of statewide tobacco control efforts as measured by an initial outcomes index (IOI) for the 1990s and a strength of tobacco control (SoTC) index for 1999 through 2000. Annual percentage change (APC) in incidence rate was calculated for whites and blacks separately and by sex for each SEER area.

RESULTS

Among whites, the largest declines for lung cancer were in the 3 SEER areas of California, which were the only areas with significant (negative) APCs for oral cavity-pharynx cancer (but not for bladder cancer). For blacks, significant (negative) APCs for both lung and oral cavity-pharynx cancers were found in 4 of 5 areas with useful data but only 1 of 3 areas for bladder cancer. The strongest correlations of APCs for whites were for lung and oral cavity-pharynx cancers with the IOIs for the early 1990s and with the SoTC (due to the influence of California, which had the highest SoTC).

CONCLUSION

Lung and oral cavity-pharynx cancer incidence rates among whites aged 15 to 54 years declined more in California than in other areas, possibly because of comprehensive state tobacco control efforts. The different trends for bladder cancer vs other cancers could reflect the influence of risk factors other than tobacco. The greater geographic uniformity of trends among blacks than among whites for lung and oral cavity-pharynx cancers requires further study, particularly in relation to state tobacco control efforts.